Category Archives: Politics

Fear and the economy

The elite cadre of people who read this blog know that I’ve been doing a lot of thinking about the emotion of fear lately. Just today I was wondering how it relates to the economy and our current recession.

Economic decisions are, at least partly, psychological decisions. If I’m trying to decide between buying a house, or waiting to see if the price drops, I’m testing my ability to predict the behavior of the other homebuyers in my market. And the length of time that I’m willing to wait has to do with the steeliness of my nerves — a psychological aspect of my character.

When Bush and Obama infused cash into the economy, they were essentially trying to tell people that cash was still liquid, and that that would keep things going until the economy naturally rebounded. It obviously didn’t work as well as they, particularly Obama, hoped. And I think the reason why is that people were asking themselves the obvious questions, “What if I spend (instead of save) and the economy doesn’t rebound quickly enough? Will I regret spending money now that I could use to eat in the future?”

This series of questions has a lot to do with why I haven’t purchased a new guitar lately. People, myself included, are understandably cautious. And caution is a very mild form of fear.

How we handle our economic decisions during a downturn is a bit like being locked in a closet. As a kid, when you were stuffed into a closet, you immediately panicked. You had a couple minutes of pure terror, then that kind of faded to extreme concern, and that went down a few notches to worry, and finally, hours later, you were genuinely bored. Fear and painful emotions have an extreme initial impact, but then go away.

I suspect there’s a lot of people right now putting off whether they should buy a new TV or set of camping supplies or guitar. They’re holding off, because they’re worried that the money they spend now is money they’ll need later. I think that as time goes on, that “worry” will ultimately become boring and they’ll say, “Aw, fuck it, let’s just buy the damn thing.”

Will that end the recession? Economics is a lot more complex than that, but I think that is a component.

Keep on the Sunny side

I remember the heady days of yore when I actually gave a shit about politics and would, during a key political event, post multiple blog posts in a single day. I’m largely burned out on the topic, but I did find this sentence in this Guardian article (predicting a Democratic bloodbath) amusing.

The one cause of optimism for the Democrats is that the vote was mainly a vote against them, rather than a positive vote in favour of the Republicans.

Er, yeah… that is good news. Yay.

What Obama actually said on Afghanistan

Sigh. I find comments such as the following from Nicholas Kristof in the New York Times wearying.

Like others, I have my disappointments with Mr. Obama, including his tripling of forces in Afghanistan.

Let’s try and recall what Obama’s campaign promises in regards to Afghanistan were, by, for example, looking at this NPR article from 2008.

While on the campaign trail, Obama had said this failure centered on President Bush not having sent enough troops to Afghanistan. And at campaign rallies, he constantly pledged to stop the war in Iraq and turn to the other.
“We will bring this war to an end. We will focus our attention on Afghanistan,” Obama said.
O’Hanlon says Obama’s campaign focused mostly on sending more U.S. troops to Afghanistan. Occasionally, Obama raised the problem of fighters coming across the border from Pakistan.

Kristof and the various progressives who criticize Obama for his decisions on Afghanistan are certainly free to say they disagree with him. But they can’t claim to be “disappointed.” Disappointment implies you thought someone was going to do something and he didn’t do it. Obama has been true to his word on this issue. He said he was going to pull troops out of Iraq and put them in Afghanistan, and that’s exactly what he did.

Thoughts on Hilary Swank movie “Conviction”

I caught the new Hilary Swank film, “Conviction,” this weekend. As you may know, it’s the story of a Massachusetts woman who earned a law degree so she could free her brother from prison where he was serving a sentence for a murder he did not commit. One of the interesting things about the film is that the main villain is Martha Coakley. You may recall her as the Democrat who ran in 2010 for the Senate seat opened up by Edward Kennedy’s death. She lost to Republican Scott Brown, and for a while, it looked like the loss would be the final blow against the health-care bill.

Now, if you take the movie at face value, Coakley does come across as — to use a term employed by Swank’s character — “an evil bitch.” As Attorney General, she blocks the release of the imprisoned brother even though DNA evidence has exonerated him.

Coakley is currently running again for the Attorney General position, and disputes claims made in the movie.

Coakley’s representatives sought to curtail the negative press from the movie yesterday and released a fact sheet detailing what they said are inaccuracies. According to the release, Coakley did not keep Waters in prison for months after DNA tests showed he wasn’t the one who brutally murdered Katharina Brow in her Ayer home in 1980. Waters was released from prison within two weeks of the DNA test, according to the fact sheet, which highlighted her 20 years as a prosecutor and record of protecting against wrongful convictions.

I, of course, have no way of knowing who’s telling the truth here. But I am a little curious about one thing. The movie has been in various stages of production for several years, and there must’ve been a point where director Tony Goldwyn (who, I was a bit surprised to discover, is the same Tony Goldwyn who played the heavy in “Ghost”) was aware that he could be working on a film that would either malign a contender for the Senate (had the movie come out a year earlier) or malign a sitting senator (had she won.) Obviously, that dilemma would be a bit daunting. And, I don’t know Tony Goldwyn’s politics, so I have to wonder whether he would be concerned that his film could actually harm the Democratic agenda. (I presume most people Hollywood are simpering liberal pinkos.)

I actually did a little research on the Web into this matter, and did find this interviewwith Goldwyn which touches on the subject.

[Q:] While she’s never seen, one of the arresting moments in the film for many viewers may be discovering Martha Coakley was the person who had a hand in keeping Kenny behind bars as the attorney general in Massachusetts. During production, were you paying close attention to what was going on in her ill-fated 2009 run for Senate in Massachusetts? And do you feel that takes audiences out of the movie at all?

[A:] Oh my God. It was unbelievable, incredible. I couldn’t believe that was happening. I think it’s good for the film because Martha Coakley became sort of an infamous character and had we come out a year ago, it probably would’ve been much more prominent, but I think people go, “Oh, I think I’ve heard of that name.” Look, she became a very prominent person. She was attorney general of the state of Massachusetts and yet DAs and prosecutors are in the business of keeping people in jail. Putting them in jail and keeping them there and she wasn’t about to let him out until Barry [Scheck] shamed her into it.

One thing not mentioned by the movie: the imprisoned brother, Kenny Waters, died in a fall six months after finally being freed from prison.

Juan Williams and the bigotry of fear

Occasionally I will be engaging in deep, profound thought (of course, deep, profound thought is the only kind of thought I’m capable of engaging in) and a headline will arise about the very topic I’m contemplating. This happened recently while I was musing on the neurological processes related to the emotion of fear. All of a sudden, Juan Williams gets fired from NPR for stating on the Fox television network that Muslims on planes make him nervous. Here’s the exact quote.

“I mean, look, Bill, I’m not a bigot. You know the kind of books I’ve written about the civil rights movement in this country. But when I get on the plane, I got to tell you, if I see people who are in Muslim garb and I think, you know, they are identifying themselves first and foremost as Muslims, I get worried. I get nervous.”

This comment has led many to accuse Williams of bigotry. Was he being bigoted? I think it depends on how you unpack his comment.

I’ve loosely touched on the idea in previous posts that we have different kinds of fear reactions. We have what might be called “shock,” which occurs when our limbic system fires off at the barest hint of a threat. We see something in our garden that looks like a snake and we jump. Seconds later, we realize it’s merely a garden hose.

We also have more conscious kinds of fear. When we contemplate crime or cancer we’re experiencing fear on a more cerebral level.

Now, let me state for the record that I don’t consider viewing flying Muslims as a threat to be a “reasonable” response. Yes, it’s possible these particular Muslims are planning to hijack your plane and fly it into a building, but the odds are slim. And, as many have pointed out, Muslims planning such an attack would probably not draw attention to themselves by wearing traditional Muslim garb.

However, it’s also not reasonable to jump at the sight of a garden hose. Primitive fear is not reasonable. More cerebral kinds of fear, like fears of crime or cancer, are reasonable to a degree (as long as they don’t take over your life.)

So was Juan Williams saying that he experiences a shot of primal, limbic fear when he sees Muslims on an airplane, or a more elevated kind of fear? It’s tough to say, but the use of the word “nervous” as well as “anxiety” — which I’ve heard him use in clarifying statements — implies to me that he’s experiencing a gut level, limbic kind of fear. The kind of fear one can’t expect to be reasonable (or non-bigoted.)

On the surface, there’s really nothing wrong with what Williams is saying: he just admitting that he experiences fear at certain kinds of stimuli. If he says he experiences fear whenever he sees men wearing rainbow clown wigs, who were we to tell him he’s not?

Was NPR right to fire Williams? NPR has made clear their reasons for his dismissal.

One reason he was fired, according to Vivian Schiller, NPR’s CEO, is that the company felt he wasn’t performing the role of a news analyst:
“News analysts may not take personal public positions on controversial issues; doing so undermines their credibility as analysts, and that’s what’s happened in this situation,” said Schiller in an email to NPR member stations, some of which are upset about Williams’ firing.

For the most part, this seems reasonable. If an NPR news analyst announced that he thought the Jews planned 9/11 and that the Jews were now sending an armada of men wearing rainbow clown wigs to get him, we would feel this analyst had undermined his own credibility. And we wouldn’t blame NPR for firing him.

However, Juan Williams has been on Fox for close to a decade (I think), during which time I’m sure he’s taken public positions on more than a few controversial issues. Why fire him now? My suspicion is that NPR has been wanting to axe Williams for some time, and this was the first available opportunity.

The whole controversy has led me to ask myself a question: do I get nervous when I see Muslims on planes? Certainly, I take note of them when I see them. It would be fair to say that their presence does remind me of 9/11. But I don’t recall ever experiencing that “twinge” of fear — I think my rational system has trained my primitive limbic fear system that the odds of being on a plane with terrorists are highly unlikely. On the other hand, if I was, say, flying into Israel, and saw a 28-year-old man in Muslim garb, I might have a little jolt. It’s not rational, but that kind of fear never is.

The return of Anita Hill

I note that — 19 years after the initial scandal — the controversy surrounding Anita Hill’s accusations of sexual misconduct by current Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas have been revived. If you’ve forgotten the specifics, they are explored in this CBS news article. For instance…

Hill also testified that Thomas would boast about being well-endowed and has experience in pleasing women intimately.

Her exact words were, “Thomas claimed to be a lot like Wil Forbis.”

The state of fear

Lately, I’ve been reading a rather interesting book on the subject of fear. (I would tell you the title, but it’s in the other room, and I’m too lazy to get up and look.) So far, the book argues that humans developed a deep and resonant sense of fear to make up for our various shortcomings — we’re not particularly strong or fast, and we don’t have built-in defenses like armor or claws or fangs. We’re good at planning and strategy, but that’s not always useful in emergency situations where we need to make a decision pronto. We need a system of awareness that is very sensitive to potential dangers, hence fear.

The main driver of our system of fear is the limbic system which takes incoming sensory information and scans it for danger. It doesn’t take much to set off, which is why you sometimes see a long limp object in the yard and think “oh my God, it’s a snake,” only to discover it’s your garden hose. The limbic system presumes the worse, and investigates later.

Our system of fear also explains a lot of our base prejudices. It doesn’t take much to convince us that the people on the other side of the hill, or people of a different race, or who wear different clothes, are try to kill us. And through much of history, a sizable portion of those people were trying to kill us. Thus it’s easy for our brain to accept the evil motivations prescribed to what sociologists would refer to as “the other” — the person who is unlike us.

I’ve become increasingly interested in how the design of our neurological system relates to the realm of politics. One thing I’ve always noted is the willingness of people to believe utterly absurd things about their political opponents. Democrats don’t just want progressive taxation, they want to ultimately convert the United States into a socialist hellhole where white men are enslaved by cackling minorities. Republicans don’t want to just reduce government power, they want to hand the reins of government over to corporations who will then force everyone to eat bioengineered food while constructing a Gulag for Mexicans. Why is it always so easy to believe the worst about your opponent?

I suspect the limbic system is at play here. When fired up, the limbic system is responsible for releasing various hormones and neurotransmitters into our system. This may correspond to a state of fear, or perhaps to what I view as a cousin of fear, our sense of outrage. When you look at the world of political theater, many people seem addicted to their own outrage. I’m guessing they’re actually addicted to the rush of chemicals they get when they stir themselves up into a state of outrage.

The “W” stands for what?

Heh – I found the recent invocation of the word “whore” by an employee of Jerry Brown’s campaign to describe Meg Whitman amusing but largely unworthy of comment. But check out how the National Organization of Women first condemns Brown, then weasels out of it.

“NOW calls on Brown to fire any member of his staff who uses this word or any hate speech against women,” she said.

Subsequently, O’Neill amended that position:

“We are not saying anyone on the Brown campaign be fired. What I should
have made clear was that anyone who says the “W” word from here on should
be fired. What happened last week was a teachable moment for all of us.
We can all agree that the word is offensive and should be retired.”

Got it — from “here on.” Glad we got that cleared up.

Late-night television comedians rejoice!

This Christine O’Donnell chick in Delaware seems to be the gift that keeps on giving.

Today new details emerged of an interview with Fox’s Bill O’Reilly in November 2007 in which she made the claim, without any foundation, that: “American scientific companies are cross-breeding humans and animals and coming up with mice with fully functioning human brains.”

I imagine these mice are hard at work in their laboratories developing new delicious flavors of cheese.

Book burnings? Bah!

It appears that the latest in the Koran burning story is that the Florida Pastor has decided not to go through with it. Frankly, I’m amazed this was ever a story at all. This was news in the same manner that Paris Hilton is a celebrity. She’s a celebrity simply because she’s a celebrity, and this story was news, simply because (they tell you) it was news.

I suspect that if 30 years ago someone had said they were planning on burning Korans, it would have been buried somewhere below the fold on page A36. (I think this would be true even if we were living in some kind of alternate history where, in 1980, we had already been attacked by Muslim terrorists and gone to war in Iraq and Afghanistan.) What’s the difference between then and now? I blame cable news. 30 years ago, the media had a single 30 minute television slot to to fit all the day’s news into. And that’s about right; the average day probably has 30 minutes of news worth reporting. Then came cable, and suddenly broadcasters had to fill seven or eight hours of news each day. Thus they had to “invent” news by inflating largely stupid new stories to newsworthy status. That’s what happened with this Koran story, and, frankly about 80% of the new stories on the cable news networks. Additionally, cable news operators discovered that people get addicted to outrage — I’m almost certain there’s some kind of excitatory neurotransmission (akin to being on drugs) that occurs in that brain state — and they made up their minds to deliver such outrage. If only cable television viewers could remove themselves from the IV drip of spittle inflected anger and turn to the sober, cautious analysis of My So-Called Penis.

One interesting point about book burnings: in the age of e-books, do they really mean anything? Let’s say I took 200 PDF copies of the Koran, put them in a folder on my hard drive, and then clicked the delete button? Should that cause a controversy of international proportion? The fact is, almost every book in history is or soon will be transcribed into digital format, at which point burning hard copies is meaningless.